Grant Williams, author of “Things That Make You Go Hmmm…” and host of The Grant Williams podcast, joins Julia La Roche on episode 127 for a wide-ranging conversation on macro.
The conversation explores the importance of investors being ready for both a recession and a soft landing at the same time in the current economic environment, which is not an easy thing for investors to do. Grant makes a case that the biggest sea change is it’s now time to play defense in the market.
The discussion delves into the importance of having a view on the US dollar and the impact of Japan's monetary policy on financial markets. Grant shares his experience starting his career in Japan and discusses the worldviews of different generations and their impact on investing. He points out that Millennials are likely to learn some hard lessons about investing since they came of age in an environment where it was easy to make money.
Elsewhere, the concept of the Fourth Turning and the potential for conflict is explored. Grant shares his thesis on gold as a means of preserving purchasing power and problems with the CPI.
Grant also shares the worst experience in his career.
Links:
https://www.grant-williams.com/
https://twitter.com/ttmygh
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome Grant Williams
1:30 Macro view
3:00 Two opposing ideas at once
5:24 Difficult to admit you’re wrong
8:15 Need to understand the U.S. Dollar, the Japanese Yen
9:15 U.S. Dollar outlook
10:29 Bank of Japan moves
13:40 Second-order effects of Japan on the global markets/economies
17:00 Japan’s market an alternative to the U.S.
18:23 Grant’s early career years in Japan
21:00 1987 crash
23:50 People want to help
26:15 World views we form generationally
29:00 Millennials are going to learn hard lessons about investing
32:12 View of the economy between younger and older generations
34:46 The Fourth Turning
39:33 ‘The Economic Consequences of The Peace’ January 2015 talk
42:12 Worry about my kids, my grandkids. We’ve reached that point.
43:25 The big sea change is it’s now time to play defense
44:11 Gold
51:02 CPI
57:43 Worst thing that happened in Grant’s career
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#016 Marc Benioff On The New Era For Business
#015 Activist Short-Seller Dan David On 'The China Hustle' And Uncovering Frauds
#014 Nik Bhatia On The Coexistence Of The Dollar And Bitcoin
#013 Epsilon Theory's Ben Hunt On The Narratives Everywhere
#012 Jim Bianco: This Is The New Normal. Get Used To It.
#011 Anthony Scaramucci On Failure, Bitcoin, and Trump
#010 Kyle Bass On Energy, China, Inflation, And More
#009 CrowdStrike's Adam Meyers On The Biggest Cyber Threats
#008 Alan Patricof on 50 years of investing, Burning Man and the NYC Marathon at 87, and living to 114
#007 Ryan Williams On Unlocking Access To Commercial Real Estate Investing
#006 Greg Lukianoff on Free Speech and 'Free Speech Culture'
#005 Hugh Hendry on Why We’re Already in the 4th Depression
#004 Former Assistant Treasury Secretary Gerry Parsky on Lessons from the 70s and Parallels to Now
#003 David Cote on Winning Now, Winning Later
#002 Bill Browder on Surviving Putin's Wrath
#001 Morgan Housel on The Psychology of Money
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