Grant Williams, author of “Things That Make You Go Hmmm…” and host of The Grant Williams podcast, joins Julia La Roche on episode 127 for a wide-ranging conversation on macro.
The conversation explores the importance of investors being ready for both a recession and a soft landing at the same time in the current economic environment, which is not an easy thing for investors to do. Grant makes a case that the biggest sea change is it’s now time to play defense in the market.
The discussion delves into the importance of having a view on the US dollar and the impact of Japan's monetary policy on financial markets. Grant shares his experience starting his career in Japan and discusses the worldviews of different generations and their impact on investing. He points out that Millennials are likely to learn some hard lessons about investing since they came of age in an environment where it was easy to make money.
Elsewhere, the concept of the Fourth Turning and the potential for conflict is explored. Grant shares his thesis on gold as a means of preserving purchasing power and problems with the CPI.
Grant also shares the worst experience in his career.
Links:
https://www.grant-williams.com/
https://twitter.com/ttmygh
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome Grant Williams
1:30 Macro view
3:00 Two opposing ideas at once
5:24 Difficult to admit you’re wrong
8:15 Need to understand the U.S. Dollar, the Japanese Yen
9:15 U.S. Dollar outlook
10:29 Bank of Japan moves
13:40 Second-order effects of Japan on the global markets/economies
17:00 Japan’s market an alternative to the U.S.
18:23 Grant’s early career years in Japan
21:00 1987 crash
23:50 People want to help
26:15 World views we form generationally
29:00 Millennials are going to learn hard lessons about investing
32:12 View of the economy between younger and older generations
34:46 The Fourth Turning
39:33 ‘The Economic Consequences of The Peace’ January 2015 talk
42:12 Worry about my kids, my grandkids. We’ve reached that point.
43:25 The big sea change is it’s now time to play defense
44:11 Gold
51:02 CPI
57:43 Worst thing that happened in Grant’s career
#117 Ted Oakley On Staying Rich With A Balanced Portfolio
#116 Lyn Alden On Broken Money, Higher Inflation, Gold, And Bitcoin
#115 Dr. Lacy Hunt On The Impending Recession
#114 Bob Elliott On Why It's Time For A 10% Gold Allocation
#113 Jim Rickards On What The Israel-Hamas War Could Mean For The Global Economy
#112 Darius Dale: Why We Could Have A Worse Recession Than Investors Anticipate
#111 David Hay: The Odds Of A Recession Are Going Up, Not Down, With Each Passing Day
#110 Marc Chandler: The Dollar's Rally Is, If It's Not Over Yet, It's Nearly Over
#109 Danielle DiMartino Booth: 'It’s Clear That The U.S. Economy Is In A Recession If It Wasn't For Everything That Uncle Sam Is Either Spending Or Fudging'
#108 Chris Whalen On The ‘Silent Crisis’ — The Looming Commercial-Led Recession
#107 Claudia Sahm: The Economy Is At An Inflection Point
#106 Harald Malmgren & Nicholas Glinsman: The U.S. Treasury Market Is The ‘Ultimate Wrecking Ball’
#105 Sam Burns: The Economy Isn't Headed For Recession Any Time Soon
#104 Christopher Zook On Stagflation, Energy, And A 'Generational Opportunity' In Commercial Real Estate
#103 Matt Higgins: The Only Way Out Is A Reckoning
#102 Masha Bucher On The State Of Venture Capital, Investing In AI, And How To Navigate Today's Market
#101 Larry McDonald: The Probability Of Sustained Stagflation Is Rising
#100 Bill Ackman On Activist Investing, The Economy, And Learning From Mistakes
#099 Peter Cecchini: 3 Reasons Why We're Headed Toward Recession
#098 Rick Rule: 'Potent And Very Ugly Cocktail' In A Rising Interest Rate Environment
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